About

I’m Tom, and this is my blog.

Fragile credences are the opposite of resilient credences. The probability you assign to a proposition, or your credence in it, is more resilient the less it is expected to change given new evidence. A person may assign the same probability to two propositions, yet one of these probabilities might be more resilient than the other. Low-resilience credences could be called fragile – at least, that’s what I’ve decided to call them.

I think credal resilience is practically and philosophically useful concept. It’s a part of orthodox Bayesian epistemology that doesn’t get enough love, which sounded like as good an idea as any for the name of a weblog. The name also serves as a reminder that –in the face of the severe epistemic errors of past generations and the complexity of our universe– my own credences ought to be fragile.

Some pages on this blog, such as this one, talk about themselves. For a list of pages that don’t talk about themselves, see here.